The upcoming US election, easings of national lockdowns and Brexit are giving Brown Brothers Harriman鈥檚 (BBH) senior vice president, Robert Lees, cause to be 鈥渃autiously optimistic鈥� for the securities lending market鈥檚 H2 performance.
鈥淪ecurities lending demand faced unprecedented challenges in the first half of 2020,鈥� Lees says, which contributed to a 14 percent year-on-year decline in securities revenue for the period, according to .
However, Lees has used a 2020 mid-year review blogpost to argue that a global unlocking combined with government stimulus packages for industries most affected by the coronavirus pandemic may 鈥渦ltimately foster greater fundamental asset pricing and create opportunities for stock pickers鈥�.
Entertainment, health and fitness, and travel industries are among the sectors expected to rebound in the second half of the year, although uncertainty remains in the face of a possible second wave of the virus in major economies and globally.
Lees notes that, from a securities lending perspective, 鈥渨e [BBH] are cautiously optimistic鈥�.
He explains: 鈥淲e expect that companies will increase their activity in corporate restructuring as mergers and acquisitions, initial public offerings, and capital raising look to increase in the second half of the year as pent up demand returns.鈥�
Moreover, he adds that the impact Brexit and a US presidential election may have on capital markets is expected to be a 鈥減ositive tailwind for increased returns from securities lending鈥�.
What could have been
According to Lees, at the start of 2020, the securities lending market was shaping up to focus on the ramifications of Brexit and the ongoing trade war between China and the US.
鈥淲hile we anticipated that matching the asset returns of 2019 was going to be a challenge, particularly in equities, we expected a move to more diverse risk asset returns,鈥� he says. 鈥淭his, in turn, was expected to result in an increase in securities lending demand with greater conviction from stock pickers to counter what had been a decade long, sustained market rally.鈥�
Instead, the market has seen 鈥渦nprecedented鈥� central bank stimulus, rock-bottom interest rates and a 鈥渄eteriorating fundamental outlook,鈥� he continues.
The global securities finance industry generated $3.89 billion in revenue for lenders in the first six months of the year, representing a 13.94 percent year-over-year drop-off, according to DataLend.
The decline in revenue was experienced across both the equity and fixed income markets, as well as regionally across Europe, the Middle East and Africa and Asia Pacific, where year-over-year revenue was down 33 percent and 25 percent respectively.
The only region to buck the trend was the Americas, where revenue increased by 5.6 percent year-on-year for H1.
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